cascading risks

interdependent hazards that affect natural and human systems and that could cause or amplify each other.

natural disasters can amplify and cause other physical catastrophes, but also social ones, as for example they can challenge the governance process (Paper - 2018 - Pescaroli Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks A Holistic Framework)

“we define compound risks as ‘‘a combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards that contributes to societal or environmental risk’’ and, after Pescaroli and Alexander,7 such risks could be: ‘‘(a) extremes that occur simultaneously or successively; (b) extremes combined with background conditions that amplify their overall impact; or (c) extremes that result from combinations of ‘average’ events.’’” (Ranger et al., 2021, p. 1376) (pdf)

example in California:

1. 2012-2016 - Extreme drought
2. 2017 - extreme precipitation (increased growth of fuels-shrubs and grasses)
3. extremely dry and warm spring & summer - reduced moisture levels
4. record-setting winds
5. extreme fires
6. 2018 - extreme rainfall

cascading hazards may have independent drivers as well, but still amplify the damage done by the other.

the term is sometimes used interchangeably with compound risks, interconnected risks, and interacting risks. Though frameworks exist that tease out differences among them (Pescaroli 2018), such as focus on vulnerability vs. hazards, physical risks vs. social/organizational ones.

Natural risks affected by Climate Change

• frequency, severity and duration of heat waves
  • increased risk of wildfires
    • increased vulnerability to flooding, landslides
    • disrupt carbon and nitrogen cycling
  • challenge to energy sector (increase usage)
• frequency, severity and duration of droughts
  • increased local warming ((moisture deficits limits land evaporation))
  • increased risk of wildfires
    • increased vulnerability to flooding, landslides
    • disrupt carbon and nitrogen cycling
  • challenge to energy sector (lower resource availability for solar thermal and geothermal)
• increase heavy precipitation and hurricanes (higher temperatures hold more water vapor)
  • waterborne diseases and outbreaks
  • risk of landslides
  • crop damages (Food Systems)
  • increase risk of flooding
    • further amplified by sea level rise (in coastal regions)
• increased drylands
  • increase communities living under water-stress
  • increased frequency of dust events
  • degrade soil’s ability to store CO2 ⇒ more climate change

Paper -2020-AghaKouchak - Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World academic

Conflict from climate change and Bd loss

“Shortages of natural resources, especially food and water, can be a source of geopolitical and social tensions. The loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services is expected to increase these situations, mainly through acute extreme events such as droughts. In Africa, droughts are known to be a source of increased violence, up to and including major worldwide conflicts such as the Syrian civil war (WEF, 2020b).” (Chandellier and Malacain, 2021, p. 26) (pdf)

Disruptions to Critical Infrastructure

systems and assets vital to the functioning of society

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Related: resilience | catastrophic risks | network science | complex risk assessment frameworks