One possible critique of Effective Altruism’s approach.?
Surely one criticism of the traditional economics models, as also explained in Book - Doughnut Economics by Kate Raworth
This is especially important when in complex situations there are many variables that are impacted and we’re not even considering. - what is the model ignoring
From Paper - Adapting risk assessments for a complex future (2022) by Wassenius & Crona
Quantification and probability assessments can be great tools, but in using them, we need to be cognizant that when applied to systems with high levels of randomness, they may mask the variability and infuse a false sense of security, as has been argued in financial risk analysis.
“Future-focused risk intelligence should emphasize proactive strategies designed to anticipate and respond to the full spectrum of risks, ranging from frequent, predictable linear risks to rare, asymmetric events that could be catastrophic yet are often underweighted due to their low probability. These inherently nonlinear, asymmetric risks underscore the limitations of relying on probabilistic models when seeking to create certainty or to predict the unpredictable (Taleb 2016)”(Spitz and Desbiey, 2025, p. 3) (pdf)