cascading risks

interdependent hazards that affect natural and human systems and that could cause or amplify each other.

natural disasters can amplify and cause other physical catastrophes, but also social ones, as for example they can challenge the governance process (Paper - 2018 - Pescaroli Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks A Holistic Framework)

example in California:

1. 2012-2016 - Extreme drought
2. 2017 - extreme precipitation (increased growth of fuels-shrubs and grasses)
3. extremely dry and warm spring & summer - reduced moisture levels
4. record-setting winds
5. extreme fires
6. 2018 - extreme rainfall

cascading hazards may have independent drivers as well, but still amplify the damage done by the other.

the term is sometimes used interchangeably with compound risks, interconnected risks, and interacting risks. Though frameworks exist that tease out differences among them (Pescaroli 2018), such as focus on vulnerability vs. hazards, physical risks vs. social/organizational ones.

Natural risks affected by Climate Change

• frequency, severity and duration of heat waves
  • increased risk of wildfires
    • increased vulnerability to flooding, landslides
    • disrupt carbon and nitrogen cycling
  • challenge to energy sector (increase usage)
• frequency, severity and duration of droughts
  • increased local warming ((moisture deficits limits land evaporation))
  • increased risk of wildfires
    • increased vulnerability to flooding, landslides
    • disrupt carbon and nitrogen cycling
  • challenge to energy sector (lower resource availability for solar thermal and geothermal)
• increase heavy precipitation and hurricanes (higher temperatures hold more water vapor)
  • waterborne diseases and outbreaks
  • risk of landslides
  • crop damages (Food Systems)
  • increase risk of flooding
    • further amplified by sea level rise (in coastal regions)
• increased drylands
  • increase communities living under water-stress
  • increased frequency of dust events
  • degrade soil’s ability to store CO2 ⇒ more climate change

Paper -2020-AghaKouchak - Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming Worldacademic

Disruptions to Critical Infrastructure

systems and assets vital to the functioning of society

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Related: resilience | catastrophic risks | network analysis | risk assessment frameworks