Decision-Making
title: Decision-Making —
Principles
- Do not take rushed decision (if decision requires you to be rushed and you can avoid taking the decision, avoid it)
- Decision Journals help us mitigate some of the biases in our decisions
- Look to falsify the beliefs you hold to be true to counter the
[[
Confirmation Bias
]]
“If that’s not the way you are thinking you will not be successful, except by accident” - [[ Annie Duke ]]
- Looking for the things we don’t know can help us to deal with both of our information issues
- The Information we have is limited and often wrong
- Falsifiability
- Looking for the things we don’t know can help us to deal with both of our information issues
- Keep in mind Cognitive Bias
Good Decisions vs Good Outcomes
- The two things are very different
- We cannot assess decision quality objectively
- Instead, we can assess the outcome of that decision
- The problem is that we tend to mistake a good outcome with a good decision and viceversa
- We cannot assess decision quality objectively
Frameworks
- Hell Yeah or No vs. just say yes
- the map is not the territory - misplaced concreteness -
- [[ What you want now vs what you want most ]]
-
Collective Decision-Making
- Consensus
- Consent
- Mandate
- Advice
- [[ Robust Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty ]]
Heuristics
- Affect
- Letting one’s emotions significantly impact the decision
- Researchers have found that when you are in a positive emotional state, you are more likely to perceive an activity as having high benefits and low risks
- If your emotional state is negative, on the other hand, you are more inclined to see the activity as being low in benefits and high in risk.
Created on: 2020-10-20 Related: [[ Podcast Notes - Annie Duke – How to Decide (EP.22) ]] | [[ 010 Mind MOC ]]
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