From Paper - Adapting risk assessments for a complex future (2022) by Wassenius & Crona
In situations where uncertainty is conceived of as a limit in calculability rather than limits to our knowledge of potential outcomes, failing to address these uncertainties despite limited ability to precisely calculate their occurrence could lead to slower or unfocused mitigation of the causes. This could, in turn, translate into a concrete risk. One example is the Amazon rainforest. Although the global and connected impacts of the Amazon tipping from a rainforest to savannah are not precisely known, nor is the precise point at which it will tip known, there is increasing evidence confirming that deforestation of the Amazon will cause it to tip with escalated global warming as likely effects.53,54 As this is a known and undesirable outcome of the action of deforestation of the Amazon, not merely uncertainty about the future, it should therefore be accounted for in risk assessments and mitigation strategies, whether the probability of occurrence can be calculated or not. We argue that this more extensive definition of risk should guide how we assess and address sustainability risks today and in the future.